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Picking the Winner of the Kentucky Derby
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There is a lot of ways you can bet the derby but most of them are not the smartest ways to wager. Last year I had the winner and the year before that also. How did I do it. There are three ways for me. First thing I look at is breeding. The horse has to be bred to run all day. If the horse is a maybe then throw it out.
But Vinny how do I know this information? Simple it is in the listings where they show the horses parents and grandparents, you just have to know if they were bred to run for distance. That you can look up also on the internet for free.
Next up I get rid of the favorite! Yep thats right, the favorite is no good in the derby and it isn't a smart wager since people that dont bet normally will play the favorite just to have a winning ticket. The jockeys know that the horse is the favorite and won't let the horse have a good trip since eliminating that horse gives them a better shot at winning. The favorite rarely wins hmmmm. Your money is better spent on a horse that is second or even third choice.
The next thing I look at is a horse that has a limited amount of starts: This is how I came up with Lemon Drop Kid and Smarty Jones a few years back. A horse that has only 4 starts is a fresh horse that hasn't been beaten up in prep races leading to the derby. Some handicappers hate this aproach but look at the winners from the last few years and see what I am talking about. I also like horses that come out of the Florida derby since that provides them with enough rest until derby day. Horses that run up front in the Florida derby usually fire a good race in the derby.
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04-29-2007, 05:17 AM
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